US tariffs the world, and share markets shake

Business, investment implications, and household impacts

The policy’s ostensible aim is to restore US manufacturing prowess and balance of trade. In the process, it threatens to escalate an emerging lose-lose global trade war that will disrupt economies and raise prices.

Three immediate investment implications worth noting are:

1. To the extent tariffs are aimed at promoting onshoring and strengthening supply-chain resilience, the global economy’s supply side is likely to come under strain as new layers of adjustments are imposed on what was a globalised economy, now seemingly transitioning to a delinked, fractured global order.
   
   Not only does reshoring from low-cost producers to higher-cost local producers take time, it also erodes production efficiency, assembly, and delivery that has fostered worldwide disinflation over the past three decades.
   
   
2. American companies dominate global profits relative to the US economy’s share of global GDP, and supportive rules in the rest of the world enable them to do that. However, US companies’ global profit share risks being crimped in an increasingly less-globalised world, particularly given the possibility that countries facing US tariffs could focus their retaliation on US companies operating in their economies.
   
   
3. Finally, the full impact of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) cuts has yet to be factored into current analysis but the ending of government contracts with businesses, and job losses are more headwinds at a time of slumping confidence.
   
   Accenture’s Federal Services business, accounting for around 8% of the company’s global revenue, lost its US government contract following DOGE review, while its share price dropped 7.3% following the announcement.² Just one straw in the wind?

We are already seeing changes in business behaviour. Jaguar Land Rover will pause shipments of its Britain-made vehicles to the United States for a month, as it considers how to deal with the cost of the 25% tariffs on car imports.³

If non-US carmakers, like Jaguar Land Rover, choose to pass on the full 25% tariff to American buyers, all things being equal, imported car prices would rise by 25% for US buyers. Furthermore, as the US car industry is part of a global industry, the price of US made cars would rise too.

It’s not just the price of cars that are at risk of rising. Given that President Trump’s policy is in effect to tariff the world, the price of many goods and products in the US, and elsewhere, would likely also rise.

Rising prices squeeze households’ spending, which typically sets off a chain of harmful effects that can cause business to reduce investment and cut jobs. Financial markets have been rattled because investors are looking ahead to the harmful knock-on impact of tariffs on household spending, business behaviour, and employment.

Putting the genie back in the bottle

Optimists voice the possibility of negotiations to at least ameliorate some of the tariffs, but even if tariff levels where to be negotiated lower, something more profound may have already taken place.

America, for so long the anchor of the rules-based international system, has turned inward and by doing so has eroded the very geostrategic stability it built.

It will be very difficult to put the genie back in the bottle, in our view. The shocks have eroded the trust underpinning America’s global leadership, and the loss of faith in the United States may endure even after President Trump’s departure from the White House.

US not a major Australian trade partner

The US is not a major destination for Australian exports, which means the direct trade impact of US tariffs is not likely to be significant for the broader Australian economy (although specific sectors, such as beef exporters, will be hit).

Of more significance is likely to be the impact on global growth and investor moods. Anything that is a handbrake on global trade, risks capital flows, and adds greater uncertainty to business decision-making is bad for countries’ economic wellbeing and investment markets.

Australia’s largest trade partner, China, has a heavily export driven economy and has benefited greatly from the trading system. US policy changes could materially dent the country’s economic growth and employment, which would be a headwind, particularly for Australian commodity exporters.

Recent events also raise the possibility of compelling the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the US Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates by more than they may otherwise have planned to support the Australian and US economies, respectively.

Portfolio positioning

MLC Investments manage a range of diversified portfolios, and managed account strategies for a variety of client needs. These portfolios all have differing requirements and underlying assets. All our diversified funds⁴  and SMA asset allocations are actively managed and are continually reviewed to ensure our portfolios remain well-positioned for changing market environments.

We remain alive to emerging threats like this but also equally mindful that times like now can provide investment opportunities.

Some of our key portfolio positions are discussed below, noting our diversified portfolios and SMAs will each contain different combinations of these. More details on specific portfolio positions are outlined in Appendix 1.

• We have had an ‘underweight’ position to the US share market for some time and instead deployed more of our clients’ funds to non-US markets, which we judge as being better valued.

• We have maintained our exposure to alternative investments, like insurance related investments, which provide an attractive source of diversification given their performance is not related to share markets.

• In select portfolios we hold real assets via unlisted infrastructure and unlisted property investments, which provide diversification benefits, along with long-term, stable and predictable cashflows often linked to movements in inflation.

• In select portfolios, private equity represents another important source of diversification not only through an increased set of opportunities to invest in private companies, but also given their private nature, they are less volatile than listed global shares.

• Through our dedicated in-house derivatives capability, we have implemented strategies for some of our portfolios providing a level of downside protection in the event of a severe correction in US share markets.

We are strong active management advocates because markets move and change, and psychological factors can drive knee-jerk actions, by some market participants. This creates opportunities for active asset allocators, like us, who can look through events and buy good assets at attractive prices.

Positions like those discussed in this note provide high levels of diversification, and, in our view, form important parts of well-managed portfolios and are especially relevant during the current market climate.

Appendix 1:

The following pages provide asset allocation details, and explanations for over and underweights, as at 31 March 2025, for:

• MultiSeries 70
• MultiActive Balanced
• MLC Wholesale Horizon 4 Balance Portfolio
• MLC Index Plus – Balanced
• Real Return – Assertive
• Managed Account Strategies – MLC Value Balanced 70 Model Portfolio
• Managed Account Strategies – MLC Premium Balanced 70 Model Portfolio
  

Strategic asset allocations have been designed to efficiently generate above-inflation outcomes based on long-term investment assumptions. Actual asset allocations differ to strategic asset allocations where there are opportunities to provide better returns, or take on less risk, than what is provided by the strategic asset allocation.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• Underweight position to unlisted property. While unlisted property provides a relatively stable income yield, some inflation protection and the potential for capital growth, the shorter-term return outlook for some sectors is below long-term averages.

• The overweight to fixed income includes an overweight to credit via short maturities. A modest overweight to credit remains one of our highest conviction positions. In the current volatile environment, we prefer higher quality and shorter duration credit.

• Equities have drifted underweight with the recent sell-off. We have been using cashflows to add to equities opportunistically. If markets continue to sell-off, we will consider moving to an overweight position in equities.

• Within fixed income and alternatives, allocations to private credit continue to be a strong contributor to the portfolio. The private credit portfolio is predominantly Australian and provides a strong volatility dampener to the portfolio as volatility in equities and bonds continue.

• An exposure to insurance related investments benefits the portfolio in the current environment as it provides an attractive source of diversification given their performance is not related to share markets.

• Within international shares, an underweight to the US has resulted in strong recent outperformance versus benchmark.

• Within the diversified fixed interest portfolio, duration positioning has increased to provide additional protection. Credit has performed well given the portfolio was positioned defensively via well diversified high-quality credit.

Strategic asset allocations have been designed to efficiently generate above-inflation outcomes based on long-term investment assumptions. Actual asset allocations differ to strategic asset allocations where there are opportunities to provide better returns, or take on less risk, than what is provided by the strategic asset allocation.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• A relatively high level of diversified market exposure spread across traditional shares and fixed income assets. These exposures are supplemented by alternative sources of return such as private equity, MLC opportunistic capital solutions, insurance-related investments, unlisted property, unlisted infrastructure, and private credit.

• Underweight position to unlisted property. While unlisted property provides a relatively stable income yield, some inflation protection and the potential for capital growth, the shorter-term return outlook for some sectors is below long-term averages.

• The overweight to fixed income includes an overweight to credit via short maturities and private debt. A modest overweight to credit remains one of our highest conviction positions. Given the stage of the cycle, we prefer higher quality and shorter duration credit.

• Underweight position to cash and all maturities to fund the fixed income overweights.

• Within the diversified fixed interest portfolio, duration positioning has increased to provide additional protection. Credit has performed well given the portfolio was positioned defensively via well diversified high-quality credit.

• Within international shares, an underweight to the US has resulted in strong recent outperformance versus benchmark.

Strategic asset allocations have been designed to efficiently generate above-inflation outcomes based on long-term investment assumptions. Actual asset allocations differ to strategic asset allocations where there are opportunities to provide better returns, or take on less risk, than what is provided by the strategic asset allocation.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• A relatively high level of diversified market exposure spread across traditional shares and fixed income assets. These exposures are supplemented by alternative sources of return such as private equity, MLC opportunistic capital solutions, insurance-related Investments, unlisted property, unlisted infrastructure and private credit.

• Underweight position to unlisted property. While unlisted property provides a relatively stable income yield, some inflation protection and the potential for capital growth, the shorter-term return outlook for some sectors is below long-term averages.

• Overweight position to alternatives. The Real Return Strategy and derivatives provide the portfolio with more liquid sources of real asset-like exposures to offset the underweight to property.

• The overweight to fixed income includes an overweight to credit via short maturities and private debt. Given the stage of the cycle, we prefer higher quality and shorter duration credit.

• Underweight position to cash and all maturities to fund the fixed income overweights.

• Within the diversified fixed interest portfolio, duration positioning has increased to provide additional protection. Credit has performed well given the portfolio was positioned defensively via well diversified high-quality credit.

• Within international shares, an underweight to the US has resulted in strong recent outperformance versus benchmark.

Strategic asset allocations have been designed to efficiently generate above-inflation outcomes based on long-term investment assumptions. Actual asset allocations differ to strategic asset allocations where there are opportunities to provide better returns, or take on less risk, than what is provided by the strategic asset allocation.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• A relatively high level of diversified market exposure spread across traditional shares and fixed income assets, including duration and credit.

• Overweight position to fixed income with the overweight to short maturities and the recent addition of high yield bonds and loans, providing increased credit exposure.

• A modest overweight to credit remains one of our highest conviction positions. In the current volatility environment, we prefer higher quality and shorter duration credit.

• The recently introduced exposure to insurance related investments benefits the portfolio in the current environment as it provides an attractive source of diversification given their performance is not related to share markets.

• Underweight to cash to fund the fixed income overweight.

The MLC Real Return portfolios have flexible asset allocations with few constraints which enable us to target tight control of risk over each portfolio’s time horizon.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• A relatively high level of diversified market exposure spread across traditional shares and fixed income assets. These exposures are supplemented by alternative sources of return such as private equity, MLC opportunistic capital solutions and Insurance-related investments. We also maintain cost conscious hedging that should offset losses in the event diversification fails. During the quarter we maintained the exposure to shares but increased the level of hedging.

• We have a defensive orientation to both the Australian and global share exposures. The Australian shares strategy is invested in what we believe are higher quality companies protected with additional risk control by hedging part of the strategy against large losses. Our focus on quality and the hedging overlay reduces the risk of negative returns in falling markets at the expense of participating fully in speculative markets. The global shares strategy doesn’t employ the same hedging strategy, but exposures are split across managers with a defensive growth and quality focus.

• Within our derivatives and currency strategies we hold an exposure to Australian nominal government bonds to add additional duration. With yields elevated compared to the recent past, bonds once again provide diversification against growth risk. The derivatives strategy also holds an exposure to Emerging Markets.

• Inflation-linked bonds provide important inflation protection, reducing the portfolio’s exposure to inflationary risks and protecting against expectations of lower economic growth.

• Combined, these exposures position MLC Real Return Assertive favourably against its risk and return objectives.

The MLC Managed Account Strategies are focused on providing investors with above-inflation returns through professionally managed portfolios that are diversified across asset classes, specialist investment managers, and stocks.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• Within Australian shares, we have a larger representation in large-cap direct shares and remain alert to more elevated valuations. We maintain exposure to small and mid-caps and see these allocations aligning with superior earnings growth, and over time stronger capital growth.

• Holding both hedged and unhedged global shares continues to be an important diversifier.

• Alternatives provide the portfolios with important real return exposures and sources of low correlation return streams. They also provide diversification and versatility in downside scenarios via a high quality, dynamic real return solution that has a healthy allocation to genuine alternative assets.

• We believe active management is appropriate within fixed income to effectively navigate a turbulent interest rate and yield curve environment. We see favourable risk-reward attributes with longer duration Australian fixed interest and high-quality credit.

The MLC Managed Account Strategies are focused on providing investors with above-inflation returns through professionally managed portfolios that are diversified across asset classes, specialist investment managers, and stocks.

The portfolio’s main positions are:

• Within Australian shares, we have a larger representation in large-cap direct shares and remain alert to more elevated valuations. We maintain exposure to small and mid-caps and see these allocations aligning with superior earnings growth, and over time stronger capital growth.

• Holding both hedged and unhedged global shares continues to be an important diversifier.

• Alternatives provide the portfolios with important real return exposures and sources of low correlation return streams. They also provide diversification and versatility in downside scenarios via a high quality, dynamic real return solution that has a healthy allocation to genuine alternative assets.

• We believe active management is appropriate within fixed income to effectively navigate a turbulent interest rate and yield curve environment. We see favourable risk-reward attributes with longer duration Australian fixed interest and high-quality credit.